Milankovitch line, Earth orbit oscillations, cosmic meteor impacts on Earth and likely volcano mega-eruptions
Papers.
A New View on What Drives Climate on Earth in the Long Run.

Holocene Climate Pattern Recognition Paper Series

Abstract of the Holocene paper series
Features and application of the Climate Pattern Recognition method for evaluating temperature evolution in Holocene time series are explained. This study recognizes four distinct climate patterns: a multi-millennial pattern, two multi-centennial patterns and one short multi-decadal pattern. Special attention is given to peak temperature spikes. The analysis is able to distinguish different causes of climate change out from Holocene temperature graphs, such as the Milankovitch cycle, Earth orbit oscillations, cosmic meteor impacts on Earth and likely volcano mega-eruptions. We use the graphical version of the GISP2 data set transformed into equidistant time intervals of 10 years for visual demonstration of climate patterns. Each up and down of the GISP2 temperature curve is explained in detail. We were able to identify the causes for cyclic Bond events and causes for other cyclic temperature oscillations in the Holocene. A well-defined continuous multi-centennial Holocene cycle with 7-year growing periods is proven for the entire Holocene. Its exact timing of the cycle excludes an internal atmospheric-oceanic cycle cause. The pattern recognition method determines the indisputable celestial origin of cyclic patterns and is superior to GCM/PMIP/CMIP models, which all underperformed in recent 2014 model-data comparisons. The entire series contains 8 papers, which will be added successively.

Climate pattern recognition in the mid-to-late Holocene (1650 BC to 1 AD, part 5).

By Joachim Seifert and Frank Lemke
Published: June 21, 2016


Full Paper (part 5)

download paper

Milankovitch line, Earth orbit oscillations, cosmic meteor impacts on Earth and likely volcano mega-eruptions
Short Abstract
The analyzed time interval contains two major features: A very large cosmic bolide impacting Earth at 1628 BC, which produced as all cosmic impacts a Z-shaped temperature swing. The second feature is the return of the Taurids Stream, which occurs about every 3000 years. Its recognizable characteristics is the bombardment of Earth with a multitude of small-to-medium sized cosmic bolides, producing numerous impact craters on Earth, which is accompanied by small-to-medium sized Z-shaped temperature spikes in the GISP2 record. This Taurids Stream commenced at 1200 BC and lasts 1000 years. We compare this time span to the previous Taurids episode about 3000 years earlier and show the almost identical appearance of both. We identify seven Taurids impacts on Earth, and two unknown impacts are recognizable in the GISP2 temperature graph. The Taurids period is the time with the largest number of cosmic impacts on Earth in fast succession. This cosmic bombardment kept the temperature evolution relatively horizontal over 900 years, by preventing the formation of steep century-long temperature drops.


Climate pattern recognition in the mid-to-late Holocene (2900 BC to 1650 BC, part 4).

By Joachim Seifert and Frank Lemke
Published: June 10, 2016


Full Paper (part 4)

download paper

Milankovitch line, Earth orbit oscillations, cosmic meteor impacts on Earth and likely volcano mega-eruptions
Short Abstract
We analyze each spike of the temperature evolution within this 2900-1650 BC time frame. There are 3 horizontal grid lines, the central line is the Milankovitch line, signifying the GISP2 borehole core temperature, if all other climate drivers were excluded. The two other horizontal lines are the upper and the lower Earth orbital oscillation line, within which the Earth climate varies, if not impacted by large cosmic bolides. As we demonstrate, the Holocene temperature evolution does not remain confined within these upper and lower horizontal lines, because strong cosmic impacts always and necessarily produce a strong temperature down-spin spike, followed by a strong upward temperature rebound spike, regressing thereafter. Large agricultural societies, which developed since 3000 BC, such as in Sumer, Egypt, China and India collapsed. The Sumerian-Akkadian culture with its capital city Agade was wiped off the map by a direct bolide hit. Details of bolide impacts, drought and society demise are provided. 


Climate Pattern Recognition in the Mid-Holocene (4800 BC to 2800 BC, part 3).

By Joachim Seifert and Frank Lemke
Published: May 4, 2015


Full Paper (part 3)

download paper

Milankovitch line, Earth orbit oscillations, cosmic meteor impacts on Earth and likely volcano mega-eruptions
Short Abstract
This third Holocene series paper explains the global temperature evolution in the Mid-Holocene. A first major time interval, a millennium epoch of 4700BC - 3700BC, will repeat itself 3000 years later (1200BC - 200BC) as the visible effect of the Taurus Stream onto the Earth´s climate. Another major time frame, 3300BC - 2800BC, reveals the EOO-wave periodicity clearly and well visible. Other, smaller events and forces are described. 


Climate Pattern Recognition over 2700 Years of the Early Holocene (6800 BC to 4100 BC, part 2).

By Joachim Seifert and Frank Lemke
Published: February 10, 2015


Full Paper (part 2)

download paper

Milankovitch line, Earth orbit oscillations, cosmic meteor impacts on Earth and likely volcano mega-eruptions
Short Abstract
We determine four major climate drivers, active in the time frame 6800BC to 4100BC. Each Holocene temperature spike is discussed, after placing a reference grid of vertical and horizontal identification lines  over the GISP2 temperature evolution. This Early Holocene time span is governed to 90% by two large cosmic meteor impacts, which override and mask the regular EOO-wave line. Two small cosmic impacts govern the course of temperature in 4700BC - 4100BC.


Climate Pattern Recognition over 3000 Years of the Holocene Onset (8500 BC to 5500 BC, part 1).

By Joachim Seifert and Frank Lemke
Published: December 28, 2014


Full Paper (part 1)

download paper

Milankovitch line, Earth orbit oscillations, cosmic meteor impacts on Earth and likely volcano mega-eruptions
Short Abstract
Features and application of the Climate Pattern Recognition method for evaluating temperature evolution in Holocene time series are explained. The GISP2 data set is used in this study, which has been transformed into equidistant time intervals. This study recognizes four distinct climate patterns:  the multi-millennial pattern, two multi-centennial patterns and one short multi-decadal pattern. A well-defined continuous multi-centennial Holocene cycle with 7-year growing periods is proven for the entire Holocene.


The Sumerian K8538 tablet - The great meteor impact devastating Mesopotamia.

By Joachim Seifert and Frank Lemke
Published: April 25, 2014   (20 pages)


Full Paper

download paper
Paywall: $20.00
K.8538, part of a circular clay tablet with depictions of constellations (planisphere)

media: image (677 x 930 px) download


Abstract
The K8538 is the world's first scientific documentation on approach and terrestrial impact of a large comet on Earth. Observations were made on top of an astronomical tower, located 100 km close to the impact site. The report is presented in form of a sequence of eight pictures, explaining the comet's first astronomical sighting, the appearance of comet tail and coma, the growing comet size, the comet flight across the sky and finally, its visible impact beyond the horizon, i.e. the impact flash lighting of the sky and the subsequent elevation of ash plumes, glowing beyond the horizon, spreading North and West. The impact itself is not described as a blast pressure wave but rather as an ash and dust tempest, rising out of mud sediments from the Tigris and Euphrates river delta, where the hot comet found its burial. The astronomical observer carried out trigonometrical measurements to record the flight path in the sky, flying distances and flying times. The observer started his measurements as soon as the comet showed its spectacular size, coma and tail, which convinced the observer, that an extraordinary celestial event was about to take place. The K8538 is a full comprehensive analysis of the comet event; its eight-picture sequence is cohesive. The tablet is a masterly work, explaining with as little text a maximum amount of impact event features. The tablet is a late Babylonian copy of the early old Sumerian original. Written cuneiform signs of two zodiacal constellations, Orion and Triangulum, are later Babylonian copy scribe additions and were not part of the Sumerian original. The K8538 tablet had high priority in Babylonian times, because it provided the documented evidence that the comet emerged out of the constellation Triangulum, Mul-Apin, onto which late Babylonian astronomy and religion rested. The tablet eyewitness account shows Mul-Apin as celestial seat of Gods and celestial source of destructive meteors on Earth. For this reason, the K8538 was guarded, copied and refreshed over more than 1,500 years, until the late Babylonian period, after the observed meteor impact in 2,193 BC. The tablet does not deal with any Babylonian zodiacal astrology. The described cosmic impact on Earth is the so-called 4.2 kyr event, shown in our other Holocene climate change studies. The comet impact is responsible for a 300 year long drop in global temperatures combined with lasting mega-droughts, which led to the collapse of various ancient civilizations around the world.


The destruction of the city of Akkad by a cosmic asteroid impact and the link to global climate change.

By Joachim Seifert and Frank Lemke
Published: May 15, 2013   (15 pages)


Full Paper

download paper
Paywall: $20.00
The destruction of the city of Akkad by a cosmic asteroid impact

media: image (1020 x 560 px) download


Abstract
We focus on one of the most important events in human history, the 4.2 kiloyear event, when great civilizations around the world collapsed into anarchy and social chaos. From this moment on, climate cooling and widespread aridification began, lowering agricultural food production and human living conditions. Various hypotheses exist about its cause; the most promising approach links the 4.2 kiloyear event to a cosmic asteroid crash into Mesopotamia. The asteroid landed in a densely populated area; we examine at first major translations of preserved Sumerian documents on details and progression of this catastrophic event. We quote major impact features as observed by historical Sumerian eyewitnesses. The impact, as a full strike, eradicated the Imperial city of Akkad. The impact damaged all other Sumerian towns to different degrees. Based on our findings, we identify the location of the missing city of Akkad. We analyze the onset of global cooling and severe aridification in the framework of our cosmic climate footprint analysis for a selected 1,000 year timeframe. This footprint analysis of Holocene climate change affirms the occurrence and date of the impact event. We also identify volcanic mega-eruptions, which are responsible for multi-decadal global temperature dips but which cannot cause centennial-long climate changes. The footprint analysis takes 5 climate macroforcings into account and explains global cooling and aridification based on impact-related causes.


Five climate-forcing mechanisms govern 20,000 years of climate change.

By Joachim Seifert and Frank Lemke
Published: October 8, 2012   (18 pages)

Explore
Read Summary

Full Paper

download paper
Paywall: $20.00

media: image (1120 x 730 px) download


Abstract
We identify five macro-climatic mechanisms in our study that govern a long time span of 20,000 years. The state of the art in climate-forcing mechanism analysis is that presently available General Circulation Models (GCMs) underperform substantially in terms of predictive power. It is evaluated in the literature that all GCMs perform well for the first 500 years backwards from the present, but then lack skill for the previous 9,500 Holocene years. It is critical for climate models, however, that they also show their validity on time frames of more than 1,000 years.
The presented climate-forcing study proceeds with the selection of 10,000 years of the entire Holocene interglacial and, for comparison, of another 10,000 years of a purely glacial time span (37,000-27,000 BP) from the GISP2 data. It considers the effects of Milankovitch cycles, atmospheric CO2-concentrations, Solar Inertial Motions (SIM), the retrograde tri-synodic Jupiter/Saturn cycle, and of two major mechanisms, the Earth Orbit Oscillation (EOO) and the Cosmic Impact Oscillation (CIO). Detailed mechanisms for both oscillations are provided; their calculation methods are pointed out.
Concluding the study, we zoom in onto EOO and CIO forcing of the past 3,000 years and provide an outlook onto forcing mechanisms, which are expected to act within the future 500 years. The GISP2 proxy temperature curve and macro-forcing mechanisms are compared to the Hockey Stick temperature evolution pattern.
Details of demonstrated astro-climatic relations are as of today, 2012, new and original climate change knowledge. The IPCC has not been able to provide supplementary data on cycle mechanics. The identification of 5 macro-climatic drivers, missing in current GCMs, unmistakably proves that climate science is not settled yet. One missing driver may be excused, but not five. The notion of "The science is settled", upheld since the days of Galileo, is a spiritual relict of the past. All GCMs will be rectified soon.


Prediction of Monthly Global Temperatures until 2017 by a Dynamic System Model.

The power of self-organizing knowledge mining applied to climate modeling.

Published: October 2011, observed data and prediction accuracy are updated periodically. (last update November 2014)


Abstract
This model describes a non-linear dynamic system of the atmosphere consisting of 5 variables: Ozone concentration, aerosol index, radiative cloud fraction, and global mean temperature as endogenous variables and sun activity as exogenous variable of the system. More...